Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Murray, Christopher J. L. and Ortblad, Katrina F. and Guinovart, Caterina and Lim, Stephen S. and Wolock, Timothy M. and Roberts, D. Allen and Dansereau, Emily A. and Graetz, Nicholas and Barber, Ryan M. and Brown, Jonathan C. and Wang, Haidong and Duber, Herbert C. and Naghavi, Mohsen and Dicker, Daniel and Dandona, Lalit and Salomon, Joshua A. and Heuton, Kyle R. and Foreman, Kyle and Phillips, David E. and Fleming, Thomas D. and Flaxman, Abraham D. and Phillips, Bryan K. and Johnson, Elizabeth K. and Coggeshall, Megan S. and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abraham, Jerry P. and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Raddad, Laith J. and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me and Achoki, Tom and Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi and Adou, Arsène Kouablan and Adsuar, José C. and Agardh, Emilie Elisabet and Akena, Dickens and Al Kahbouri, Mazin J. and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed I. and Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel and Alegretti, Miguel Angel and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Alla, Francois and Allen, Peter J. and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A. and Amare, Azmeraw T. and Amini, Hassan and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, Benjamin O. and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. and Anwari, Palwasha and Arnlöv, Johan and Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic and Artaman, Ali and Asghar, Rana J. and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S. and Badawi, Alaa and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Banerjee, Amitava and Basu, Sanjay and Beardsley, Justin and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L. and Bernabe, Eduardo and Beyene, Tariku Jibat and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. and Abdulhak, Aref Bin and Binagwaho, Agnes and Blore, Jed D. and Basara, Berrak Bora and Bose, Dipan and Brainin, Michael and Breitborde, Nicholas and Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. and Catalá-López, Ferrán and Chadha, Vineet K. and Chang, Jung-Chen and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Colomar, Mercedes and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cooper, Cyrus and Courville, Karen J. and Cowie, Benjamin C. and Criqui, Michael H. and Dandona, Rakhi and Dayama, Anand and De Leo, Diego and Degenhardt, Louisa and Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Deribe, Kebede and Des Jarlais, Don C. and Dessalegn, Muluken and Dharmaratne, Samath D. and Dilmen, Uğur and Ding, Eric L. and Driscoll, Tim R. and Durrani, Adnan M. and Ellenbogen, Richard G. and Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich and Esteghamati, Alireza and Faraon, Emerito Jose A. and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. and Fra Paleo, Urbano and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gamkrelidze, Amiran and Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho and Geleijnse, Johanna M. and Gessner, Bradford D. and Gibney, Katherine B. and Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed and Glaser, Elizabeth L. and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N. and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Rahul and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hankey, Graeme J. and Harb, Hilda L. and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I. and Hedayati, Mohammad T. and Pi, Ileana B. Heredia and Hoek, Hans W. and Hornberger, John C. and Hosgood, H. Dean and Hotez, Peter J. and Hoy, Damian G. and Huang, John J. and Iburg, Kim M. and Idrisov, Bulat T. and Innos, Kaire and Jacobsen, Kathryn H. and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jensen, Paul N. and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B. and Juel, Knud and Kan, Haidong and Kankindi, Ida and Karam, Nadim E. and Karch, André and Karema, Corine Kakizi and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazi, Dhruv S. and Kemp, Andrew H. and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Keren, Andre and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz Ahmed and Khang, Young-Ho and Khonelidze, Irma and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M. and Knibbs, Luke and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, S. and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kulkarni, Veena S. and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B. and Kumar, G. Anil and Kwan, Gene F. and Lai, Taavi and Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C. and Larson, Heidi J. and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leung, Ricky and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira and Lin, Hsien-Ho and Lipshultz, Steven E. and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K. and Lotufo, Paulo A. and Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro and Maclachlan, Jennifer H. and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Majdan, Marek and Mapoma, Christopher Chabila and Marcenes, Wagner and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Masci, Joseph R. and Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq and Mason-Jones, Amanda J. and Mayosi, Bongani M. and Mazorodze, Tasara T. and Mckay, Abigail Cecilia and Meaney, Peter A. and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Melaku, Yohannes Adama and Memish, Ziad A. and Mendoza, Walter and Miller, Ted R. and Mills, Edward J. and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H. and Mola, Glen Liddell and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R. and Mori, Rintaro and Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Murthy, Kinnari S. and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S. and Naldi, Luigi and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K. M. Venkat and Nash, Denis and Nejjari, Chakib and Nelson, Robert G. and Neupane, Sudan Prasad and Newton, Charles R. and Ng, Marie and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F. and Nowaseb, Vincent and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Olusanya, Bolajoko O. and Omer, Saad B. and Opio, John Nelson and Orisakwe, Orish Ebere and Pandian, Jeyaraj D. and Papachristou, Christina and Caicedo, Angel J. Paternina and Patten, Scott B. and Paul, Vinod K. and Pavlin, Boris Igor and Pearce, Neil and Pereira, David M. and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petzold, Max and Pourmalek, Farshad and Qato, Dima and Quezada, Amado D. and Quistberg, D. Alex and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Ur Rahman, Sajjad and Raju, Murugesan and Rana, Saleem M. and Razavi, Homie and Reilly, Robert Quentin and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Richardus, Jan Hendrik and Ronfani, Luca and Roy, Nobhojit and Sabin, Nsanzimana and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Samonte, Genesis May J. and Sawhney, Monika and Schneider, Ione J. C. and Schwebel, David C. and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G. and Servan-Mori, Edson E. and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shiue, Ivy and Shivakoti, Rupak and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silberberg, Donald H. and Silva, Andrea P. and Simard, Edgar P. and Singh, Jasvinder A. and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soneji, Samir and Soshnikov, Sergey S. and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Swaminathan, Soumya and Sykes, Bryan L. and Tabb, Karen M. and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomson, Alan J. and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. and Towbin, Jeffrey A. and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X. and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Uchendu, Uche S. and Ukwaja, Kingsley N. and Uzun, Selen Begüm and Vallely, Andrew J. and Vasankari, Tommi J. and Venketasubramanian, N. and Violante, Francesco S. and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Waller, Stephen and Wallin, Mitchell T. and Wang, Linhong and Wang, XiaoRong and Wang, Yanping and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G. and Westerman, Ronny and White, Richard A. and Wilkinson, James D. and Williams, Thomas Neil and Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret and Wong, John Q. and Xu, Gelin and Yang, Yang C. and Yano, Yuichiro and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Zou, Xiao Nong and Lopez, Alan D. and Vos, Theo. (2014) Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet, 384 (9947). pp. 1005-1070.

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Official URL: http://edoc.unibas.ch/50720/

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Abstract

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.; To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.; Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.; Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Faculties and Departments:	09 Associated Institutions > Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
UniBasel Contributors:	Amini, Hassan
Item Type:	Article, refereed
Article Subtype:	Research Article
ISSN:	1474-547X
Note:	Publication type according to Uni Basel Research Database: Journal article
Identification Number:	doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8 pmid: 25059949
Last Modified:	06 Mar 2017 07:16
Deposited On:	06 Mar 2017 07:16

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